As we enter the third year of Putin’s “Special Military Operation” to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, there is no shortage of speculation as to what Putin will do next. Clearly, his over-ambitious plan to bring Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit as a subservient satellite has evaporated faster than his crumbling military might and inventory of tanks and other military technology. His arsenal is seriously depleted, his army has been reduced to unwilling conscripts and convicts, and Ukrainian drones are now regularly attacking targets as far as Moscow. Even worse from a geopolitical perspective, his blatant aggression has strengthened and expanded NATO, united most of Europe in supporting Ukraine, and moved most of the world to impose devastating sanctions that are slowly strangling the Russian economy. I am sure this is not what he had in mind when he launched his brazen attack on Ukraine back in 2022.
So the big question is what will he do next? For the moment, the war has essentially deteriorated into a stalemate. It is obvious that the Russian forces are currently incapable of mounting any serious new offensives. They have lost most of their inventory of modern tanks, the majority of their professional, experienced combat personnel have been killed, they are running out of missiles, their Black Sea Fleet has been chased out of Crimea, and dozens of their generals have been killed in action. They still have air superiority of sorts, but it is clear they do not know how to use their air forces effectively, and their pilots have shown that, when confronted, they are likely to run and hide rather than fight. What is worse from a future’s perspective is that Ukraine will shortly start deploying F-16s that they are receiving from their allies, which will change the combat equation significantly. Further, Ukrainian air defenses are being strengthened considerably with technology donated by their allies, which is proving to be very effective at destroying Russian missiles and drones.
Knowing that new ground offensives are not feasible, Putin and the Russian military are doubling down on trying to destroy Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the Ukrainian people’s morale and willingness to fight. The Russians have an apparently inexhaustible supply of artillery shells, drones, bombs and older missiles, and they are throwing all of these at Ukrainian cities and the civilian population. But this too, is not likely to succeed. As has become clear, the more that Putin engages in these war crimes, the stronger becomes the Ukrainians willingness to resist. Ukrainians have been through this kind of Russian aggression before, and as history has shown they will continue to resist, regardless of what the Russians throw at them.
The other strategy that Putin is pursuing is more of a geopolitical nature, as he strives to divide Ukraine’s allies and pressure them into curtailing their military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Initially he used Europe’s dependence on Russia’s oil and gas supplies to intimidate European countries into not aiding Ukraine, but that backfired as Europe has been largely successful in weaning itself off of Russian petroleum imports and finding other sources of supply. Of late, Putin has reverted to trying to divide the EU by using pro-Russian politicians in Hungary, Slovakia and other countries, and that has paid some dividends in delaying aid, but it does not look like it will succeed in the long run, as most of the EU and all of NATO are firmly committed to supporting Ukraine.
Putin also is pinning his hopes on Donald Trump winning the Presidency in the November 2024 U.S. elections and expecting that he will unilaterally stop all military aid to Ukraine as he has threatened to do in the past. It is well known that Trump is a great admirer of Putin and is at best, a fellow traveller, and at worst, a Putin agent. Although that scenario is certainly possible, it is also equally likely that Trump will wind up in jail rather than back in the White House.
The last option that Putin may resort to is that, realizing that further gains are impossible, and his country is going down the tubes economically, he may just decide to declare that he has achieved his aims and won the war, declare a cease-fire, and negotiate a face-saving end to the conflict. However, Ukraine is not likely to concede anything in any negotiations until all occupied territory is returned to Ukraine.
The bottom line is that Putin no longer has any obvious strategy or capability of winning this war and is stuck in a rut that he seems unable to escape. It is my view, that if and when this war ends, it will be because of some surprising, unpredictable factor that dramatically alters the status quo, hopefully in Ukraine’s favour.
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