Canada has seen four distinct waves of Ukrainian immigrants that began some one hundred and thirty years ago in 1891 when the first peasants from the Bukovyna area of Western Ukraine came to Canada seeking the opportunity to create a better life for themselves and their descendants. That first wave which lasted until the outbreak of the First World War, brought some 170,000 Ukrainians to Canada.
The second wave which spanned the period between the two world wars, brought another 70,000 Ukrainian immigrants. The third wave in the aftermath of World War II resulted in yet another 32,000 immigrants, while the fourth wave that followed the breakup of the Soviet Union brought still another 112,000 Ukrainians to Canada.
All told, those four waves and their succeeding generations born in Canada now constitute approximately 1.4 million people of Ukrainian ethnicity in Canada’s rich multicultural society. No one would argue that Ukrainians have had a huge impact on modern Canadian history, and it is widely acknowledged that the Ukrainians in Canada are one of the most organized and politically influential ethnic groups in the country.
Over the past six months since the outbreak of the Russian attack on Ukraine, we have seen a fifth wave of Ukrainians coming to Canada to escape the ravages of war. Under the CUAET program, some 72,000 Ukrainians have already arrived on Canadian shores. A total of 475,000 Ukrainians have applied to come to Canada, and approximately 195,000 of these applications have already been approved. Conceivably, if the war in Ukraine continues for too much longer, this fifth wave will be the largest wave of Ukrainians coming to Canada so far.
What effect will this have on Canadian society? Further, and from a more selective perspective, what effect will it have on the existing Ukrainian community in Canada? Each wave of Ukrainians coming to Canada was significantly different from preceding ones in terms of the motivations, socio-economic status, political orientation and educational background, and this fifth wave is just as distinct. Each wave had a significant impact on the dynamics, character and organization of the Ukrainian community already in place in this country, and undoubtedly, this fifth wave, will also have a similar effect.
The biggest thing that differentiates this wave from preceding ones is that this one is at least technically, a “temporary” one. The previous waves came as permanent official immigrants. This wave is coming to Canada under “temporary” visitors’ visas and work permits with a term that expires after a maximum three year stay. Presumably, after these visas expire, these Ukrainians would be eligible to apply for permanent residency status, but the government has given no indication as to how many of those applying it would be willing to approve. I would suspect that the Canadian government is hoping that the vast majority of these displaced people would want to return back to Ukraine once the war is over.
No doubt, many would want to return, but that is highly dependent on the outcome of the current war. If the Russians prevail to a greater or lesser extent, I would expect that many of those that came here under the CUAET program would be strongly inclined to want to stay. Even if Ukraine manages to win this war, as it currently seems highly likely, and manages to reclaim some if not all of the occupied territories, I would suspect that there would still be a significant number of these displaced folks that would still opt to remain in Canada if they could, recognizing that Canada offers them a more secure and stable environment with better opportunities than a Ukraine that is geopolitically vulnerable, being next door to a criminally aggressive Russian state, and being a relatively new independent country still struggling to create a stable economic and political entity that is truly democratic and free of oligarchic corruption.
Canada could find itself in a real dilemma three years from now when all those CUAET visas expire. The prospect of having to deport several hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that do not want to leave, would indeed be a daunting prospect. I would like to believe that the authorities here would realize that most of these folks are fairly well educated and within those three years most would have become productive, working citizens, comfortably established within Canadian society. Ukrainians have a solid track record of contributing to the growth and success of this country.
The CUAET program was understandably created in a hurry to deal with an emergency situation, leaving the longer term consequences to be dealt with at a later time. However, it is probably now time for the government to consider some of these future implications and devise an appropriate policy on how it will deal with the possible alternatives once this war ends.
Share on Social Media
