The war in Ukraine is now well into its second year, and although it has become clear that Russia’s ill-advised and poorly executed aggression is failing big time, it is still fairly uncertain how much longer it will last. A few months ago, military experts were predicting that both sides were gearing up for major spring offensives that could potentially turn the tide and lead to victory for one side or the other, or at least to an early peace or ceasefire.
There are now signs that the Russian “offensive” has actually been going on for at least the past month with Russian forces attempting to break through at Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. Those initiatives have so far proven to be abject failures that have caused the Russian military catastrophic casualties and destroyed even more of their now dwindling supplies of equipment and munitions. It has forced them to dust off fifty-year-old tanks and other equipment from deep storage and throw them into the fray on the front lines.
To add insult to injury, Russia’s massive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure that were meant to demoralize the Ukrainian population and destroy Ukraine’s ability to wage war, has only made Ukrainians more determined to defeat their invaders. While such attacks have caused much destruction, Ukrainians have managed to keep their essential services functioning and the war effort continuing in high gear. There are clear indications that Russia’s stocks of missiles is close to being depleted entirely with little ability to be replenished. Ukrainian defenses have proven to be both stubborn and capable and have yielded negligible ground to the Russians over the past six months, while recapturing previously occupied territories.
The Ukrainian military has yet to launch their so-called spring offensive, though that is likely imminent over the next few weeks. They have taken the time to properly train the reserves and conscripts they have mobilized over the past six months, and are well equipped with modern weaponry, artillery and other supplies received from their NATO, European and other allies. Ukrainian government and military leaders have been touting their upcoming offensive in a fairly overt effort at stoking fear and uncertainty amongst the Russians, though they have been careful not to provide any real details as to when and where their offensive will take place.
The front lines in Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts stretch for over a thousand kilometres, so there is no shortage of possibilities, though one can make some pretty good guesses as to where the Ukrainians are likely to strike. One likely scenario would see Ukrainian forces attacking south from the Zaporizhzhia area in an attempt to sever the land bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea. Another likely possibility is a direct attack on Crimea from the Kherson area. Yet a third possibility would be an attack from the north in an effort to roll up the Russian’s Luhansk flank and recapture the Luhansk oblast entirely and possible even Donetsk. It is also quite possible that the Ukrainian military has sufficient resources to launch multiple counteroffensives in several different areas. Whatever the case, it is obvious that the Russian forces have lost their momentum and from hereon in are likely to revert to a more defensive posture, trying desperately to retain what they currently occupy.
One thing is certain and that is that Putin is on very shaky ground and likely would not survive another major embarrassing military defeat. Should the Ukrainian military succeed in the coming months in recapturing significant tracts of Russian occupied territory, the internal turmoil and disaffection among the Russian elite could very easily and quickly lead to a “palace revolt” and the end to Putin’s destructive reign of power. Besides the military debacle, it is also clear to the Russian elite that that Russia’s standing and influence as a world power has eroded significantly, while its economy is collapsing at a rate that it will take decades to recover from.
Even more damaging strategically to the Russians, Putin’s gamble that his “special military operation” would lead to internal dissension amongst the European nations and the NATO allies, has achieved the opposite effect. NATO is more united and committed than ever, and Putin’s foolish ambitions have made it clear that Russia is the number one danger to world peace and human rights. Further, the barbaric behaviour of his troops in Ukraine, committing blatant atrocities and war crimes in full public view of the world, has made not only Putin, but the whole Russian nation a pariah on the world stage. Putin has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape.
We hold high hopes that the war in Ukraine is nearing its final phase and that Ukraine will emerge from the flames of war like the mythological re-born phoenix, with a brighter and safer future on the near horizon.
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