Ukraine-Russia negotiations and Canada’s role in assisting Ukraine

Yuri Bilinsky, New Pathway – Ukrainian News.

Since the beginning of Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine on February 24, there have been four rounds of negotiations between the representatives of the two countries. The first three rounds, on February 28, March 3 and March 7, took place in Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, and the fourth one started on March 14 via video conference.

At the start of the negotiations, Russia’s demands were Ukraine’s recognition of the Russian-occupied Crimea, independence for separatist-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk “republics”, and “de-militarisation” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. The Ukrainian representatives, which included the Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov and representatives of the President’s office, have said that Ukraine’s main goals in the negotiations have been a ceasefire and withdrawal of the Russian troops from Ukraine.

Ukraine’s representatives have indicated that, at the beginning of negotiations, Russia issued an ultimatum that Ukraine capitulate and bow down to its demands. Over time, as the invasion slowed down due to the fierce Ukrainian resistance, Ukraine’s representatives started to convey a more optimistic picture that Russia, reportedly, moved away from its ultimatum and changed its tone and that some kind of diplomatic solution was in the works.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent statements about Ukraine’s possible future neutrality and the need for the country to obtain multilateral security guarantees have been widely regarded as a basis for more general negotiations with Russia that could end the war and bring a long-term peace. Last week, Head of the President’s Administration Andriy Yermak, in his interview for Ukrainska Pravda, spoke about Ukraine’s current discussions with other countries on the model of global security, which would ensure long-term security for Ukraine. During the fourth round of negotiations, Ukraine’s Justice minister Denys Maliuska was for the first time spotted at the negotiating table, which caused rumors that the sides were discussing some legislative measures that could mean some progress in fundamental issues.

Despite the indications of possible progress, so far, the only tangible result of the negotiations have been several instances of a temporary ceasefire which have allowed to evacuate dozens of thousands of civilians from the besieged cities and towns of Mariupol, Irpin, Bucha, Sumy, Chernihiv and several others through “green corridors”. In many instances, Ukraine has accused Russia of shooting at civilian convoys, violating ceasefire regimes and making evacuations impossible.

There are different opinions as to the fate of the negotiations and the way to end the war. During the webinar “Live from Kyiv: The Battle for Ukraine” on March 9, asked about the possibility of a diplomatic solution, Ukraine’s former Ambassador to Canada Andriy Shevchenko replied that Ukraine has very few expectations. He said: “What Russia wants is… Ukraine to disappear. And I think Putin is quite clear about that. He does not recognize our right to exist as a sovereign nation. And I do not see how we can be half sovereign or quarter sovereign. It’s either you accept, recognize and respect the sovereignty of other nations, or you don’t.”

Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo, told CBC on March 15 that Russia’s behaviour over the past few days indicated the Kremlin leadership may no longer believe its military can accomplish a takeover of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian side may be correct at sensing some weakness. Here, said Lanoszka, “Ukraine runs the risk of overestimating its bargaining position and holding out for a more favourable offer — rather than the first that might end the war”.

Ukraine’s bargaining position in the negotiations is not fully known at the moment. The Ukrainian representatives have ruled out capitulation and have emphasised that Ukraine’s territorial integrity cannot be questioned. Many Ukrainians, like Maksym Kozytskyy, the governor of Lviv oblast, quoted by CBC on March 15, now talk openly about having their army not just push Russian troops back to where they were when their invasion began on February 24, but to recapture the other Russian-controlled regions too, especially Crimea.

At the same time, Russia is digging in in some areas it has captured since February 24. The Russian forces have abducted mayors and have announced the creation of administrations, including new “police forces” in several towns in the Zaporizhzhia region. At the very least, Russia will use these territories as bargaining chips during the negotiations, while Ukraine’s position is being weakened by the rapidly growing human and economic toll of the war. It is also likely that Russia is planning to annex the captured territories in southern Ukraine just like it annexed Crimea in 2014. On March 13, in the Russia-occupied Kherson, the Kherson oblast council overwhelmingly voted for the region to remain in Ukraine and rejected the idea to create a “Kherson people’s republic”.

There are hopes for further negotiations related to the planned visits by Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, to Moscow on March 16 and to Kyiv on March 17. These visits will follow the negotiations between Ukraine’s and Russia’s foreign ministers Dmytro Kuleba and Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on March 10. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has on a number of occasions expressed his willingness to talk to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. This kind of meeting will hardly happen before numerous rounds of negotiations on lower levels, including negotiations between the countries’ foreign ministers.

In her interview for NP-UN on March 5, Canada’s Minister of National Defence Anita Anand stressed the need for a diplomatic solution: “We need a diplomatic solution, we need to find a way for Putin to exit this aggression and this conflict. And that, to me is the most important thing right now, to ensure that there is a diplomatic solution so that we can save more Ukrainian lives and, frankly, more Russian soldiers’ lives because those mothers are also grieving. And we need to make sure that as few lives as possible are lost. When you see large installations like nuclear plants being taken by the Russians, this is a very important call for diplomacy. We can’t let this continue”.

So far, other than the joint call by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Putin on March 12, there have been no reported direct participation in or mediation of the Ukraine-Russia negotiations by the G7 countries.

Canada’s position on the negotiations has been to support Ukraine while diplomatic talks are happening by imposing maximum pressure on Russia: “Because when we do so, we actually give [Ukrainians] a lever to negotiate,” Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said in an interview on March 9. On March 15, she told CBC: “We have put maximum pressure on Russia, on [its] different industries … But we need to do more and that’s why it’s important to have conversations within the G7. And at the same time we need to provide weapons.”

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