Volodymyr Kish.
As the war in Ukraine heads into its third week, it is obvious that it is turning into a war of attrition. The Russians, having failed to nail down the easy blitzkrieg victory they were sure was theirs, have now reverted to the most primitive of strategies, seeking to destroy major Ukrainian cities by bombing and shelling them into the stone age. They are wantonly killing innocent civilians, hoping to terrorize and demoralize the Ukrainian people and their government, until they surrender. As President Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians have made clear, that strategy too will fail.
The question now is how will this war end? I will attempt to define a number of different possible scenarios, and give my own personal estimate of their probability of coming true.
The first scenario is that despite all the damage to the Russian economy, Putin continues to double down, pushing more and more troops and technology into the fray until he manages to seize most of Eastern and Central Ukraine including Kyiv. The existing government is toppled and Ukraine is reduced to the territories west of the Dnipro River. The Russians establish a puppet state with Kyiv as its capital. Their hold on this puppet state is tenuous as underground resistance will likely be strong and Russian control will be problematic for a long time to come. I see the probability of all this happening as 10% – 15%.
The second scenario sees the war dragging on inconclusively for months to come. Military aid and supplies pouring into Ukraine will enable them to keep the Russians at bay. Further, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainian reserves and conscripts will be mobilized, likely hundreds of thousands more soldiers than Ukraine is fielding currently. As Russian body counts climb, and the Russian economy is destroyed by sanctions, civil unrest grows exponentially until the authorities are unable to control it and the Russian Federation collapses, much as the Soviet Union collapsed over thirty years ago. The Russian empire splits into dozens of independent republics as the oppressed ethnic regions east of the Urals seize on the opportunity to overthrow Moscow’s yoke. In such a scenario, it is also likely that China would also seize the opportunity to carve out a large chunk of Siberia that is adjacent to its borders and where they have an ethnic presence. The probability of this scenario is likely in the 20% – 25% range.
The third scenario is that Ukraine’s stubborn and persistent defense keeps wearing down and eroding the Russian’s ground forces until there is some form of stalemate. Again, as in scenario two, significant military aid flowing in combined with a rapid expansion of manpower in the Ukrainian armed forces become a deciding factor in making this feasible. In the meantime, crippling sanctions bring about the collapse of the Russian economy, creating serious unrest within Russia. Faced with failure, the Russian military and/or FSB stage a coup and depose Putin, leading to a ceasefire and real negotiations that bring an end to the war, with reasonable terms as far as Ukraine is concerned. My guess as to the probability of this happening is in the order of 20% – 30%.
The fourth scenario, is that Putin realizes he is in a no win situation, and fearful of a potential coup as in scenario three, decides to negotiate and have at least some gains to show for his ill-advised gamble. A general cease fire is put into effect, freezing the situation on the ground. After extended hard negotiations, the Russians agree to pull back to their positions at the start of the war. Faced by strong pressure from its western allies, Ukraine agrees to recognize the status quo in Crimea and the Donbas, and agrees to stay out of NATO for the foreseeable future. I would guess that the probability for some variation of this scenario is in the order of 30% – 35%.
To me, those are the most likely scenarios to evolve. However, war is largely unpredictable and uncertain, with a habit of pulling surprises both good and bad. What we can be sure of, is that however things wind up, it will take decades for Ukraine to recover and rebuild from this war.
Europe, NATO and the free world will also face some serious challenges. They will be forced to reassess the weakness in their foreign and defense policies that allowed this war to happen, and find more effective ways to constrain authoritarian, predatory regimes like Putin’s to endanger the peace and security of the world.
The next few weeks to a month will be crucial in determining the future not only of Ukraine, but arguably the whole world as well.
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