Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko returned home last week after what can be deemed a fairly successful trip to Canada and the U.S. There is no doubt that he made a strong impression on the political structures of both countries and was welcomed as a hero by the large Ukrainian communities that came out to greet him. New commitments were made by the governments of both countries to provide additional humanitarian, economic and development aid to a Ukraine that is in deep crisis on all fronts.
And yet, he failed to secure the one thing that Ukraine needs most right now, and that is direct military aid in the form of weapons and technology to enable them to defend itself against the well-armed Russians. Despite the impressive proclamations of support by both President Obama and Prime Minister Harper, neither is willing to take the next step of providing such aid, ostensibly for fear that such a move would escalate the conflict even further. Russia’s President Putin obviously has no such fears or reservations.
This inability to secure needed armaments and advanced military technology puts Poroshenko between a rock and a hard place. He is coming under increasing pressure at home for the lack of progress in the Anti-Terrorist Operation. His doggedly sticking to what has become a one-sided ceasefire is providing ammunition to a growing number of critics. As more and more brave but inadequately trained and poorly supplied young Ukrainian volunteers die in the battles in the East, a growingly restless Ukrainian populace is becoming more vocal and impatient for some sign of progress.
Regrettably, Poroshenko does not have many options to work with. When the Russian organized terrorism broke out in the Donbas, Poroshenko had little in military terms. The armed forces had been virtually dismantled by his predecessors and were incapable of any serious resistance. The Ukrainian government was forced to deploy hastily formed volunteer battalions and National Guard units. These enjoyed some early successes by virtue of their sheer determination and bravery, but then Putin upped the ante by sending in elite special Russian troops and heavy tanks and artillery, and now the Ukrainian forces are being hard pressed just to maintain their positions.
The cease fire, as bad and inequitable as it is, was absolutely necessary for Poroshenko to enable him to buy more time to recruit, train and equip fresh forces to send into the fray. The reality is that what Poroshenko needs most right now is time to mobilize and equip the Ukrainian armed forces.
What most Ukrainians in the West aren’t aware of is that a large scale mobilization is currently underway to rebuild the military. Young men are being drafted by the tens of thousands throughout Ukraine and put through escalated military training. Such an effort takes a minimum of three to six months. And despite the recent failure to persuade the U.S. and other countries to provide military supplies, we should not forget that Ukraine does have a significant domestic arms industry, and is in fact ranked 10th globally in arms exports. It should be able to manufacture most of what it needs for the newly drafted forces. Once the Ukrainian military is able to deploy its new army, Putin’s window of opportunity in the Donbas will quickly close.
The challenge of rebuilding the military is made much more difficult by the fact that the Ukrainian economy is verging on bankruptcy and the government does not have the required revenue. Add to this, the fact that whole government infrastructure is currently undergoing radical restructuring, and that the country is in the middle of crucial elections that will completely change the political landscape, and you have a perfect storm of issues for Poroshenko. He is indeed facing perilous times and implacable problems.
So far, Poroshenko has been up to the challenge, and I believe that he has what it takes to bring Ukraine successfully through this crisis. The next few months are crucial, and if he succeeds in staving off the Russians for few months and ushering in a more representative Verkhovna Rada, then Ukrainians may have cause to celebrate the New Year in 2015 as the start of a new era for Ukraine.
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