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Give Zelenskyy’s victory plan a chance

Oct 4, 2024 | Featured, Editorials

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Joe Biden at the White House on his visit to drum up support for Ukraine’s war effort

Marco Levytsky, Editorial Writer.

During last week’s visit to the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set out to once again drill home the message that Ukraine needs to achieve victory in its defence against Russia’s genocidal war and re-iterate what it needs to accomplish this goal. Addressing the United Nations on September 25th, 2024 he criticized “half-hearted settlement plans” that “ignore the interests and suffering of Ukrainians, who are affected by the war the most” and “give Putin the political space to continue the war and pressure the world to bring more nations under control.” Instead, he offered his own “Peace Formula”. As he stated:

“We must restore nuclear safety.
“Energy must stop being used as a weapon.
“We must ensure food security.
“We need to bring home all our captured soldiers and civilians forcibly deported to Russia.
“We must uphold the UN Charter and guarantee our right – Ukraine’s right – to territorial integrity and sovereignty, just as we do for any other nation.
“We need to withdraw the Russian occupiers, which will bring an end to the hostilities in Ukraine.
“We must hold those responsible for war crimes accountable.
“We need to prevent ecocide and stop the destruction of nature caused by the war.
“And we must not allow a second or third phase of this Russian invasion.
“And we must make it clear – the war is over.”

Zelenskyy also presented a victory plan to President Joe Biden, the U.S. Congress and two presidential candidates: Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Although the total plan has not been made public, several details have emerged. It includes both diplomatic and military components. Among them:

• Extending an Invitation to Ukraine to join NATO: Ukraine is currently a NATO partner country, not a member of the alliance. While the alliance has made it clear that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership, this is not going to happen while the war with Russia is on, as that would immediately mean that the alliance as a whole would be at war with Moscow.
• Allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles: Ukraine has been demanding access to these missiles, to target sites deep within Russia, and has ramped up its pleas following its dramatic incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August.
• Maintaining a sustained supply of advanced weapons: Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has relied heavily on weapons and military platforms provided by NATO allies. Yet often, Ukraine has had to plead for specific weapons systems for weeks, months, or even longer, all the while facing repeated rejections, only to eventually succeed in convincing the US and others to meet its long-standing requests. This, Ukraine says, has reduced the effectiveness of its military response to Russia, delayed its war goals and led to the loss of lives that could have been saved.
• Membership in the European Union (EU): Bloomberg reports that a clear pathway to EU membership is also part of the victory plan. In an interview with the New Yorker, Zelenskyy said Ukraine currently “stands excluded from the European Union and NATO.”
• Additional economic aid for Ukraine: Zelenskyy and his aides have stressed that the victory plan includes a request for economic support. The World Bank estimates that the country will need $480bn for reconstruction.

Zelenskyy received the usual platitudes from Biden, who stated: “Russia will not prevail. Ukraine will prevail, and we’ll continue to stand by you every step of the way”, but when it came down to concrete action, the administration was more ambivalent.

At a September 27 press conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US administration is studying Ukraine’s victory plan. When asked whether Kyiv would receive permission in the future to use Western weapons for long-range strikes on Russian military targets, he said only that the administration would consider “additional actions” to help Ukrainians achieve victory, if necessary.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden administration is concerned that Zelenskyy’s plan lacks a comprehensive strategy.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. If anything, it is the Biden administration that lacks a clear strategy. To begin with, Ukraine never received the weapons it needed and asked for before Putin launched his full-scale invasion, because Western military experts expected the country to fall within 72 hours and didn’t want Russia to get the weapons.

Well, Ukraine surprised everybody. Not only did it not fall, but Ukraine repelled the Russian attack on Kyiv and was able to regain some territory from the occupiers before it ran out of ammunition to sustain another counteroffensive. Now, once again, Zelenskyy has to beg for more weapons and permission to attack Russian missile sites.

Unlike the U.S., Ukraine does have a comprehensive strategy – provide us the weapons we need to fight this war and remove all unnecessary, unwarranted and self-defeating restrictions on how those weapons are to be used.

However, if the meeting with Biden was disappointing, the one with Trump was an outright disaster. Two days before he even met with Zelenskyy, Trump criticized him for not negotiating a peace deal with Russia. This is criticizing the victim for not agreeing to be savaged by the aggressor. What is unspoken is exactly what was to be negotiated when Russia, as the aggressor, wants to eradicate Ukraine completely. Anyone who has an elementary understanding of the war knows that this is a life or death war for Ukraine. There is no land for peace option because that would mean abandoning the remaining residents of the occupied territories to one or another of two untenable options: forcible “Russification” or arrest, imprisonment and an early death in exchange for an unenforceable peace agreement (amounting to no more than a brief truce) that Russia would violate at the earliest opportunity just as it has every other international agreement or treaty it has ever signed.

And after their meeting, Trump had the unmitigated gall to boast about his “very good” relationship with Putin and how he will negotiate a deal. Trump has never offered any details of any deal he would make. Itis clear from his running mate J.D. Vance’s statements that Trump would give Putin whatever he wanted, rewarding his aggression and crimes against humanity. As Trump’s former National Security Advisor John Bolton told CNN, should Trump win next month’s election, Ukraine would be “toast.”

Since the threat of Trump’s re-election remains very real, the Biden administration must immediately accelerate and strengthen its support for Ukraine. As the noted historian and expert on both Russia and Ukraine, Yale Professor Timothy Snyder stated:

“This is its opportunity for a historical legacy in foreign policy. Of course, Biden and his team will be remembered well by allies for their diplomacy and competence and, in general, for restoring a sense of normality and reliability. This is no small thing. Indeed, it is a tremendous achievement. But Ukraine is the challenge that history offered. It has not yet been met.”

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