Editorial carton by David Parkins, The Globe and Mail
By Marco Levytsky Editorial Writer
With two months remaining in his term of office, U.S. President Joe Biden finally loosened some of the restrictions he had placed upon Ukraine’s use of the long-range missiles that Washington has provided. The question that arises is which cliché is most appropriate for this decision. Is it “better late than never”, or “too little, too late”?
First, it must be noted that news stories which state that the U.S. has allowed Ukraine to fire missiles “deep into Russia” are greatly exaggerated. The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, which the U.S. has provided, only have a range of 300 kilometres. The Storm Shadows that the United Kingdom has sent have a range of 250. There are a few military and weapons bases depots in that narrow corridor that Ukraine can destroy and has been doing so successfully. But Russia has a huge land mass that extends 10,728 kilometres from East to West and covers 11 time zones.
In retaliation for the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows by Ukraine, Russia has escalated the war by launching its newly developed Oreshnik missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on November 21. A modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Oreshnik is said to travel at 10 times the speed of sound, which makes it impossible to intercept, and has a range of over 5,500 kilometres.
Aside from hitting any strategic military targets within 300 kilometres of its borders Ukraine can use the Western missiles to defend its position within the Kursk salient it has held for two months now. And that is why the Biden administration finally lifted some of the restrictions. It is hoped that this will help Ukraine resist the Russian onslaught and maintain the Kursk salient as a negotiating point. But, despite mounting a courageous defence, Ukraine faces tremendous odds. It has an estimated 10,000 to12,000 defenders against about 60,000 troops including 10,000 North Koreans. More North Korean reinforcements are expected. Some news reports suggest that number may even reach 100,000.
But, according to the Wall Street Journal, it already is too little too late. The newspaper reports that the Biden administration is running out of time to use the billions of dollars allocated by lawmakers for Ukraine's armament and that U.S. officials and Congress have left it up to the newly elected President Donald Trump to decide what to do with the remaining funds.
Judging by the comments Trump has made in the past, as well as the pro-Russian sentiments of his Vice President J.D, Vance, his nominees for Secretary of Defence, Peter Hegseth and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, it is widely expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be forced to negotiate a peace that will inevitably allow Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin to grab a piece of Ukrainian sovereign territory. How much remains to be seen.
Putin has proposed a plan which will dismember Ukraine into three parts. Crimea and the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts are to be annexed outright. The Western oblasts of Transcarpathia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Volyn and Rivne are to be allocated to Ukraine’s western neighbours. And the central region is to become a Russian puppet state. This is ominously similar to Adolph Hitler’s dismemberment of Czechoslovakia in 1938-39. First the border region of Sudentenland was annexed. Six months later the rest of Bohemia and Moravia were absorbed by the Third Reich; Slovakia was established as a puppet state, while Transcapathian Ukraine, which was part of Czechoslovakia during the interwar period, was taken over by Hungary. In a further six months Hitler invaded Poland and World War II broke out.
This is the threat which faces Europe today – a totalitarian state aiming to reconquer its imperialist possessions just like Nazi Germany set out to do in the 1930s. And just like Britain and France were unprepared for the force of the Nazi onslaught when war did break out, so today Europe is unprepared for the imminent Russian onslaught. For too long Europe and Canada have relied upon the United States for protection while neglecting their own responsibilities. They must now step up arms production and military preparedness at breakneck speed.
While the Biden Administration has adopted an incremental approach to military aid and placed restraints upon Ukraine because it has allowed itself to be spooked by Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling, Trump’s policy is based on economic expediency. Sending aid costs money. Maintaining sanctions also costs money. And that doesn’t only apply to Trump. Many people in Europe are also questioning the ongoing costs, and this is contributing to the sense of fatigue and reducing support for Ukraine. But taking this from a global perspective, the price is minimal. As of August 2024, European nations, including the UK, had allocated 118 billion euros in aid to Ukraine since February 2022, while the United States had spent the equivalent of 85 billion euros, according to a tracker published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. That amounts to barely more than 0.1% of GDP a year for the U.S., and double that, or 0.2% of GDP, for the EU and UK combined.
If Europeans had to foot the entire bill for a retreating U.S., continued support for Ukraine, at the current pace of roughly 7 billion euros a month, would amount to less than 0.4% of their combined annual GDP. Some major powers could even pay more. The UK, Italy and France have spent less than Europe’s average on support for Kyiv, in spite of their governments’ grand proclamations.
But while Western countries fret about their material well-being, Ukrainians are fighting for their very survival and paying for it with their lives. But they are fighting not only for themselves, but for democracy everywhere and for the rules-based order that guarantees the sovereignty of every single country. Forcing Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that rewards the aggressor and punishes the victim, will be a blow to democracy, a blow to the rules-based order which has prevailed since World War II, and a boon to every terrorist state that wishes to destroy democracy and this rule-based order. It will also amount to an unconscionable betrayal of all those gallant men, women and children who have sacrificed their lives for the good of all humanity.
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